Trade card: AGNC Nov 20 2026 $9 call
The order, as you enter it
AGNC261120C00009000.Walk-away price
Latest desk look, 12:59 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026: bid $0.19, ask $0.21, mid $0.20, under the walk-away; stock $8.90. Cboe public chain (about 15 minutes delayed), chain timestamp 2026-10-21 16:58:07 UTC (12:58 PM EDT). The live quote in the app is what counts.
Price chart
Exits (stock levels, written before the fill)
Exits are set by the STOCK price, not the option price. Set price alerts on AGNC at each level. Distances are from the stock price at the pick, $8.89.
| Exit | Stock level | From $8.89 | What to do |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stop | $8.66 | -2.6% | A 24-hour close back below $8.66 (back inside the box): sell to close the next session at the bid. A stock level, not a −50% option stop. |
| First trim | $9.19 | +3.4% | Sell 1 of the 2 contracts (the middle of the empty space). |
| Runner / target | $9.38 | +5.5% | Hold the other contract for the final target; sell it there. |
| Time exit | — | — | After 3 straight daily closes moving against you (below the day before), sell what is left. |
| Close-by date | Thu Nov 19 | — | Sell anything left, the day before expiry (Fri Nov 20). |
Ex-dividend Thu Oct 29 (unverified) AGNC pays $0.12 a month; on that morning the stock usually opens about $0.12 lower. A call does not get the dividend, so the drop counts against it and brings the stop closer. Yahoo's date, not checked against the company's own announcement. The box rule does not check dividends (desk note 10:11 AM EDT).
Whether Webull offers conditional orders that fire on the stock price for an option was not checked (unverified); alerts plus a limit sell at the bid are the plain way.
Strike choice
| Strike | Where | Bid / ask | Cost at ask | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $9 (this card) | at or below the first trim $9.19 | 0.19 / 0.20 | $20 | 0.42 |
| $9.5 | at the final target $9.38 (the method's original strike) | 0.02 / 0.07 | $7 | 0.18 |
The at-target strike is cheaper but worth almost nothing even if the stock reaches the target. The trim-level strike costs more and is in the money by the target.
For
- PotterBox: AGNC is ARMED up by a fresh 24-hour close through the box's 50% cost-basis line (box $8.33-$8.99), with about 4.3% of empty space to $9.38.
- Agreeing second opinions: Fidelity flow.
Against, and what would make it wrong
- No backtest yet, and the move has to come before expiry: at delta 0.42 the option loses value every day the stock does not move toward the target.
- Wrong if: AGNC makes a 24-hour close back below $8.66 (the box traps the move), or stalls short of the target until time runs out.
- Earnings: last report 2026-10-19, already out; none found before expiry.
Screenshots and assets
Data times
Option prices: Cboe's public chain, about 15 minutes delayed, quoted 10:02 AM EDT. Box: 24h+ext daily closes through the last completed candle (2026-10-20; the trigger close is in the past, never a candle still forming), structure from VPVR (Yahoo Finance data). Lists: Fidelity scans Tue Oct 20 10:20 AM EDT, Webull rankings 9:58 AM EDT, tastytrade lists. Built 9:58 AM EDT Wednesday October 21 2026. The live bid and ask in the app are what count.
Card built 2:03 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026 from data/options/proposals/2026-10-21-pick.md. Chart bars: Yahoo daily, read at build time.
After you fill, log it
uv run python scripts/options/log_fill.py buy AGNC261120C00009000 2 <your fill price>
uv run python scripts/options/log_fill.py sell AGNC261120C00009000 <qty> <price>